Launch
entire prospectus in PDF
OVERVIEW
| PIRA, in conjunction with the London-based global maritime information provider
Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit
(LMIU), announces a new service that analyzes worldwide crude oil tanker movements. The Oil Tanker Intelligence Service (OTIS) combines PIRA's comprehensive knowledge of oil markets with the shipping expertise of Lloyd’s
MIU.
In each weekly
report, OTIS tracks and analyzes global tanker liftings, broken down by major export region, the volume of crude oil currently in transit by destination, and discharge profiles by major receiving area
(see a regional breakdown). This information provides a critical first alert as to changes in volumes out of key producing regions,helping subscribing clients to anticipate crude inventory changes in key consuming regions by at least three to six weeks before they become measurable in “official” statistics by the
IEA, DOE, or Euroilstock.
The ultimate value of OTIS is that it provides the basis for regional supply-demand analysis that allows
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| About the Cooperation |
| The combination of PIRA and LMIU is powerful. Among LMIU’s portfolio of offerings is the Analysis of Petroleum Exports service (APEX), which monitors oil export liftings and import discharges by individual vessel and port. PIRA is the worldwide leader in energy market analysis and is therefore best suited to analyze this important data. OTIS will help subscribers better understand the regional movements of oil and, in turn, gauge how quickly price acts as a magnet for supply. |
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subscribers to anticipate inventory change and, in turn, price
movements, particularly potential arbitrage opportunities between regions. The relative volume of crude oil being shipped and discharged has implications for light-heavy and sweet-sour crude oil differentials. The discharge patterns and inventory implications can impact the degree of backwardation or contango experienced in crude oil markets around the world.
SOURCES, APPROACH & METHODOLOGY
OTIS’s foundation is the unique and powerful combination of two companies that are each the undisputed leader in their respective fields.
Data Gathering: What LMIU Does
The creation of OTIS begins with LMIU’s worldwide, exhaustive data-gathering network. Using some 900 resident agents who are well established at their place of appointment, tanker loadings, departures, and discharges are gathered directly from some 2,000 ports/cities. In addition, LMIU collects information from port authorities, ship owners and agents, coastguards, pilots, customs, news agencies and other trusted sources to provide true global coverage. That data are then centrally processed in London, where a highly trained staff of 70 compiles 3.6 million vessel movements per annum for a fleet in excess of 100,000 merchant vessels above 100 GT. Of these, 6,000 are tankers ranging from VLCCs down to coastal tankers, covering approximately 155,000 movements per year. On a weekly basis, processed extracts are uploaded to PIRA for analysis.
The LMIU Data Are Aggregated for the Following Regions:
| Export Regions |
Import Regions |
Middle East Sailings and Crude Oil on the Water |
| North Sea |
Northern Europe |
Moving
Eastward |
| Black Sea |
Southern Europe |
Moving Westward |
| Baltic Sea |
Total Europe |
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| North Africa |
Far East |
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| West Africa |
India Sub-Continent |
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| Latin America |
Southeast Asia and Oceania |
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| Middle East |
Total Eastern Hemisphere |
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| OPEC |
U.S. |
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| Non-OPEC |
Total Imports |
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| Total Exports |
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Turning the Data Into a Publication: What PIRA Does
Upon receipt of the LMIU upload (each Tuesday evening), PIRA analysts take the data and apply a consistent methodology in the context of their premier understanding of markets. They draw upon PIRA’s database of tanker rates, transportation economics, knowledge of oil pricing dynamics and market intelligence to put together a consistent story of what is developing in the market. The results are conclusions that are anticipatory with regard to developing regional crude oil flows and presented Wednesday evening, when the underlying numbers are still “fresh.”
Since the data can be highly volatile on a week-to-week basis, PIRA utilizes trend movements that are indicative of changing crude oil trade flows. The data are graphed on a “smoothed” basis so a statistical envelope is presented that gives an indication of the inherent data volatility. Taking a measure of the week-to-week volatility and then applying it around the central tendency of the smoothed data creates that envelope. This method is similar to that employed in creating Bollinger Bands for analysis of equity prices; thus, it is highly useful in helping to assess the reliability of the weekly data and reducing the range of uncertainty — particularly when disruptions occur in export flows and their volumetric impact and duration can be easily recognized.
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